Anek visited, thanks for SpacterX, here's the chatlog.

[20:33] Hi
[20:33] Ive been postponing my vacation for a while since the VIX has been so nice
[20:33] and since tomorrow is OEX i decided to take it tomororw, least break from trading
[20:33] http://i39.tinypic.com/10wr321.png
[20:34] those were my trades today, coveres were 86 and 75
[20:34] short started from 918 yday
[20:34] all were live calls in the room in case you are one of those hmmm skeptical ones
[20:34] just wanted to drop by and post it here
[20:34] since I'll be taking a sabatical
[20:34] figure it can help

[20:35] Ya gonna spend a few weeks with the kids
[20:35] Market kind of slows down during this time due to holidays
[20:35] but with this financial turnmoil and chaos you really never know
[20:36] for what is worth 981, 885 and 875 were taken from the anchor 100k
[20:36] 981, sorry should read 918

[20:41] [14:24] <@Anek> T1 hit +31 +19.25 on the add
[20:41] [15:24] <@Anek> Target 2 Hit +43 and +31 on add
[20:41] prob 1 min late
[20:42] ES
[20:42] Dont worry, i took 6 shorts trying to nail that trade this week
[20:42] Until I finally caught it
[20:42] so you were holding from like 917?
[20:43] 918
[20:43] then the adds from intraday today
[20:43] if you want to see why 918 885 and 875 were pivots, try the 100k anchor ES
[20:43] they will stand out like sore thumb

[20:43] Well price has this habit of simply going from pivot to pivot
[20:44] And precisely at these pivots is where you should start to initiate the trades
[20:44] That way your entry is protected by support or resistance and if possible by price action
[20:44] I havent scalped in prob over 6 months
[20:45] Just sticking to the big winners

[20:48] Ya during the pivot you got different choices
[20:48] You can take it point blank, assuming its a super obvious pivot
[20:48] Wait for volume exhaustion, huge volume bar spiking in the 1 min, 30 sec, 5 sec, yoru choice
[20:48] Or you can be more conservative and just wait for a confirmed reversal formation
[20:49] Whether thats a DT, DB or just a simple flip of S to R or R to S
[20:49] Remember no matter how crazy the call looks you are always protected by your stop
[20:49] Now, if you are shorting a pivot, you dont want to cover 5 min later, you really want to kill it, after all, you are shorting an R pivot
[20:50] And vice versa for S pivots
[20:50] And remember that price way of travelling is from pivot to pivot
[20:50] it just does not like to stop in mid air
[20:50] Heavy supply and heavy demand always show up at mega critical areas
[20:51] Whether they end up holding or not, thats another story

[20:54] Ya I dont have a problem holding overnight
[20:54] I do have a problem holding over the weekend, nothing I can do
[20:55] I think the 918-920 area is key
[20:55] Until the market makes that area support market has no chance of a rally
[20:56] Support is not as clear
[20:56] There are multiple "layers"
[20:56] And an unfilled gap around the 803 area
[20:56] However, many believe in Xmas seasonality and are expecting an EOY rally but unless that 918-920 becomes support, its not going anywhere but down or sideways
[20:57] If you examine the big charts with detail you will notice this 920 also corresponds to the neckline of a big inverse head and shoulders
[20:57] and again, until the neckline becomes support, its not going to rally
[20:57] they could pierce it to 940
[20:58] if that happens watch the retracement closely
[20:58] as you do want 920 to be a clear sign of support
[20:58] otherwise it could be a fake
[20:58] Thats about all I call tell you from ES right now
[20:59] ya it still does look like it wants to re-try
[20:59] but better to react instead of predict, always
[21:00] Ya heard about it, good community effort, best think you can do is work as a team
[21:00] thing
[21:00] Anyway, wanted to stop by, drop the chart and wish you all happy holidays

ES2008120801

Took 1 long trade today. Entry was at a R wanting it to turn S. Px hit through my entry px and nearly took out my stop, it was near COD of the pivot that I'm looking at 28/11.
28/11 COD and HOD is very close, both in term of time and px. Worth to take another look at relationship of COD and HOD/LOD when they are so close.
Took 1 car out @ 50% retracement, had too many trades turn at this juncture. 2nd car out when price stall plus the end of OR15. This was a right move as price turns here after.

Last Friday's trade should be a good trade if only I pay more attention to px. the support level was 818 and not 817 that I'm targeting for, may be time to buy a bigger monitor. ;)

ES2008120501

1 trade 0.5pt/car

ES2008120301

Wasn't sure why, keeping looking for short around the highlighted area. Was a blessing that I hold my entry, wanting to see some sort of comfirmation. Px was hovering around ORH, not clear bounce that warrent a short.

It's only after market that I see that px is oscilating up, entry should be the DB @ ORL15, it's also a mini 2B.

ES2008120201

Px didn't move up to 837-845 range when market open.
Took a short when px move to this range, out with -3pt/car.

ES20081202 - Pre Market Analysis

This is my take for the day.

Price gap up in after hour trades.

Touching ~837 S turn R level.

I will be looking hard on px between 837-845 for a possibility to short.

Target for short is around 815. A good 20pt target.

Px is now 833. Lets see how's things work out

ES2008112501

Didn't trade last 2 days due to work commitment.

here's my view of yesterday.

ES2008112101

ES2008112001

What am I doing, money can only be made when I ENTER trade!!!!!

HLoOfTimeRange_v0 NinjaTrader Indicator

Indicator for drawing Open Range H/L. HLoOfTimeRange_v0.zip

ES2008111901

#ahg1 is growing

Very excited today.. 1st time leaving my computer on over the night to record down all the chat logs proof to be very valuable.

the #ahg1 chat room is very much alive with many gurus from the original #ahg chat room chipping in. Looks like I got no more excuse to be lazy, time to put in effort and move ahead.

I like the view Stavros gave on stop lost, target, RR... here's an abstract. Hope he don't mind I paste it here.

I'd advocate not moving stop AT ALL, if your entries are truly in key areas, they are protected, and them being hit will help you with your next trade, paying for that information

Most areas are tested at least once... meaning you get your breakeven stop hit and then continues. -3 is better than the missed +20.

Think of it this way, let's say your average stop is 3 points,  that means that if 1 out of 6 trades that you don't move to breakeven actually works, you've more than paid for the rest you got stopped out on. 

Need to TRUST the math... believing in it is the key, that's why sim is so important, can spend the time taking the drawdown, and then seeing positive at the end of the week/month

 and say...hey, this ain't so bad!

Bring it on -3 bitch! that's one less until my next +20!

Do this, just for the next two weeks. Don't move your stop and see what happens.

Track closely, record every single stop.

You may still be negative, but that's due to other things, but you'll see that your cutting your potential profits short to save a few nickels

well you need to have a logical target as well, or you dont take the trade, if you miss it, oh well, let it go; you missed it, chasing it will only get another -3 in the column.

Multicar is so crucial in my opinion, when my first target gets hit i'm in a risk free trade without moving my stop. If my T2 gets hit, i've just paid for 2-3 stops at least.

Min target 1 of at least 3x RR

Nice for Anek to Drop by #AHG1

[20:29] *** Anek-L10-ES (~priv@r190-135-162-179.dialup.adsl.anteldata.net.uy) joined

[20:29] .Anek-L10-ES. Good evening all

[20:32] .herbertdotcom-L1. sup Anek

[20:33] .herbertdotcom-L1. hows it going??

[20:34] .Anek-L10-ES. hey H how are you

[20:34] *** [1]jfw215 (~jfw215@c-98-234-149-71.hsd1.ca.comcast.net) joined

[20:34] .Anek-L10-ES. all good here

[20:34] .herbertdotcom-L1. alright. still trying to become profitable

[20:34] .Anek-L10-ES. ya, that crap takes time man :(

[20:35] .herbertdotcom-L1. ya, not stopping until im there

[20:35] .Anek-L10-ES. agree, only real defeat is when you quit

[20:35] .herbertdotcom-L1. ive been trying to use the 5 sec lately. particularly tricky heh

[20:36] .Anek-L10-ES. I wouldnt touch it, until you truly understand the 1min/vol

[20:36] .Anek-L10-ES. If you open the 1 min for today

[20:36] .Anek-L10-ES. you could have seen the volume divergence at the DTOP in the morning

[20:36] .Anek-L10-ES. and in the afternoon reversal

[20:37] .Anek-L10-ES. it was going up on high volume

[20:37] .Anek-L10-ES. and all retracements on low volume

[20:37] .Anek-L10-ES. sign of momentum to come

[20:37] .Anek-L10-ES. 5 sec offers some "edges" because its faster

[20:37] .Anek-L10-ES. but if you dont master the 1 min, its going to end up hurting you

[20:37] .herbertdotcom-L1. ya i need to get better at reading vol. period

[20:38] .herbertdotcom-L1. getting a little better at spotting divergences and what high and low vol is

[20:38] .Anek-L10-ES. when you have reversal pattern

[20:38] .Anek-L10-ES. say

[20:38] .Anek-L10-ES. double top

[20:38] .Anek-L10-ES. double bottom

[20:38] .Anek-L10-ES. 2B

[20:38] .Anek-L10-ES. W

[20:38] .Anek-L10-ES. that sort of thing

[20:39] .Anek-L10-ES. you want the 1st leg

[20:39] .herbertdotcom-L1. congrats on L10 btw =]

[20:39] .Anek-L10-ES. to have exhaustion volume

[20:39] .Anek-L10-ES. hah!, just a #

[20:39] .Anek-L10-ES. real big volume bar

[20:39] .Anek-L10-ES. then the 2nd attemtp

[20:39] *** jfw215 quit (Ping timeout for jfw215[c-98-234-149-71.hsd1.ca.comcast.net])

[20:39] *** [1]jfw215 changed nick to jfw215

[20:39] .Anek-L10-ES. should have at most medium to little volume

[20:39] .Anek-L10-ES. if its at the top

[20:39] .Anek-L10-ES. it doesnt matter if the 2nd top is a HH

[20:39] .Anek-L10-ES. just has to be minimal vol in comparison to the 1st

[20:40] .Anek-L10-ES. means all the demand is over

[20:40] .Anek-L10-ES. and most of the stops were hunted

[20:40] .Anek-L10-ES. vice versa for the bottoms

[20:40] .Anek-L10-ES. 1st leg on exhaustive volume

[20:40] .Anek-L10-ES. 2nd leg on little volume

[20:40] .Anek-L10-ES. even if its a LL

[20:40] .Anek-L10-ES. just make sure its CONFLUENTIAL

[20:40] .Anek-L10-ES. something in the anchor supporting it

[20:41] .Anek-L10-ES. remember that price doesnt like to reverse just anywhere

[20:41] .Anek-L10-ES. mid air, doesnt make it happen

[20:41] .Anek-L10-ES. key areas do

[20:41] .Anek-L10-ES. and thats the confluence I look for

[20:41] .herbertdotcom-L1. ya confluence is key...like the close today, wished market was open longer so i could shot

[20:41] .CasperCRF. hey

[20:41] .herbertdotcom-L1. short

[20:41] .herbertdotcom-L1. where/when do you decide to enter when playing a reversal like this?

[20:41] .Anek-L10-ES. also dont confuse a pause in the trend with a reversal

[20:41] .Anek-L10-ES. hi Casper

[20:41] .Anek-L10-ES. sometimes when the trend has been very strong

[20:41] .Anek-L10-ES. it needs a pause

[20:41] .Anek-L10-ES. a rest

[20:42] .Anek-L10-ES. thats when amateurs start  looking for reversals

[20:42] .Anek-L10-ES. and weak shorts

[20:42] .Anek-L10-ES. start covering

[20:42] .Anek-L10-ES. assumign it was a downtrend

[20:42] .Anek-L10-ES. then it will dance around a range

[20:42] .Anek-L10-ES. even make you think it did a Higher High

[20:42] .Anek-L10-ES. but in truth is just consolidated

[20:42] .herbertdotcom-L1. in the middle of nowhere

[20:42] .Anek-L10-ES. this is perfect time

[20:42] .Anek-L10-ES. to re-short the upper range of the range

[20:42] .Anek-L10-ES. for the second leg down

[20:42] .Anek-L10-ES. rarely and I mean very rarely

[20:42] .Anek-L10-ES. does price reverse off a consolidation channel

[20:43] .Anek-L10-ES. its usually

[20:43] *** Stavros-L3|SimES (~stavros@d149-67-86-153.col.wideopenwest.com) joined

[20:43] .Anek-L10-ES. DT, DB, H and S, M, W, I H and S

[20:43] .herbertdotcom-L1. lunch yesterday an exampe of this right

[20:43] .Anek-L10-ES. not a tube

[20:43] .Anek-L10-ES. well lunch is notorious for consolidation

[20:43] .Anek-L10-ES. all volume dries up

[20:43] .Anek-L10-ES. and price just flies thru a channel

[20:44] .Anek-L10-ES. Im just saying consolidation after a trend, usually means

[20:44] .Anek-L10-ES. pause until the 2nd leg

[20:44] .Anek-L10-ES. and consolidation is consolidation, not reversal

[20:44] .Anek-L10-ES. and dont forget that reversals must be confirmed

[20:44] .Anek-L10-ES. just because it has two identical legs at support

[20:44] .Anek-L10-ES. doesnt mean its a DB

[20:45] .Anek-L10-ES. until the S is broken it will look like a DB

[20:45] .Anek-L10-ES. always

[20:45] .herbertdotcom-L1. ya

[20:45] .Anek-L10-ES. and just because it paused

[20:45] .Anek-L10-ES. doesnt mean it will hold

[20:45] .Anek-L10-ES. usually you want that mid point to do a magic tick

[20:45] .Anek-L10-ES. and the retracements

[20:45] .Anek-L10-ES. to make HLs

[20:45] .Anek-L10-ES. then you migth have something

[20:45] .Anek-L10-ES. assumign the DB is at a confluential point

[20:46] .Anek-L10-ES. anyway, good trading to all

[20:46] .Stavros-L3|SimES. that "W" at 2:00 was a perfect example of reaction and not prediction

[20:46] .Anek-L10-ES. take care H

[20:46] .Anek-L10-ES. right 

[20:46] .herbertdotcom-L1. if the first leg of a DB has exhaustin vol, and the next leg is falls with light vol, can u enter on a HL?

[20:46] .Anek-L10-ES. cay Casper

[20:46] .Anek-L10-ES. cya

[20:46] .CasperCRF. cya

[20:46] *** Anek-L10-ES (~priv@r190-135-162-179.dialup.adsl.anteldata.net.uy) left ()

ES2008111801

2 Trades, USD143.30 net. Hope to do better next time. Need to observe S&R more.

I've just coded the HLoOfTimeRange indicator, similar to that used by Anekdoten in his charts.

Let's see how useful this is.

ES2008111701

Didn't actually trade, queued for the short but not filled. Wasn't very sure to enter or not as it has yet to reach the S turn R line.

BTW I've switched over to TICK charts as the VOL chart keep crashing on me when I try to refresh historical data. Not sure is that a bug with NT.

More AHG Files

Here is another of my AHG collection. Remember pulling this down somewhere from the net. I've inserted the pictures, hope this will be useful for all AHG fans out there.

AHG0707.zip
AHG0708a.zip
AHG0708b.zip
AHG0709a.zip
AHG0709b.zip
AHG0710a.zip
AHG0710b.zip
AHG0711a.zip
AHG0711b.zip
AHG0712a.zip
AHG0712b.zip
AHG0801a.zip
AHG0801b.zip
AHG0802.zip
AHG0803.zip

ES2008111301

Need to work on my discepline. There isn't clear sign of px reversal when I enter, mearly hope that px will bounce off those points.

Anek Trade 20081112

Simply amazing... this is first ever Anek's post with actual entry/exit.

One single trade for the day with profit of $106625 !!!!

http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&postid=2173730#post2173730

http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&postid=2174396#post2174396

BTW his screen is sure huge, see how small ninjatrader control bar was.

AHG Files

I've upload a couple of AHG files, hope it'll help more people out there learning the AHG method.

Many thanks to ____ who compiled these.

AHGreference-HK002.zip
AHGreferenceCharts-HK002.zip
piscuy.zip
stealthtradernotes-001.zip

Accuracy vs Expectancy

Got this tag-line from AHG chat room on irc.othernet.org

"Where accuracy is of no concern, but expectancy is"

It pin-point the problem I've as describe in my yesterday's trade. Expactancy is key, why worry about accuracy of trade? 

ES2008111201

Observation for the day. Good setup to short the market but didn't execute as planned. Too many consideration, having the mindset that all trades must be correct, in reality, losing is part of business

Anek's Magic

Got this from elitetrader forum.

Fantastic trade by Anek. USD16830 in one day!!!! I would be very happy to make this in one month.

Original here. http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/attachment.php?s=&postid=2166543

One more here. http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/attachment.php?s=&postid=2169998

http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&postid=2173730#post2173730 $106625.

Hot Sauce

Not related to trading, but if you like something to spice up your taste bug. Here's a good site to look at. They sell tones of HOT SAUCEs from the states.

The Hot Sauce Store Pte Ltd

ES2008102901

Ok, not too pretty, the entry was triggered by a 3BR and I queue @ 50% retracement. Was not observing S&R level and the big picture, the next swing forms a double bottom follow by another up swing forming a H&S, that should be the correct place to enter. 

ES2008082701

Start of chart is up move(leg 1), retraced during afterhour(leg 2), climb back up just before market open(leg 3). Leg 4 is a ABC, giving 1st chance to enter trade, didn't enter with intention to follow jjrvat PBP. 2nd chance is when px pull back to now support line, didn't enter as was looking at V10000 whick pull back is not obvious.

ES2008082601

Entered trade when px retrace 50%, 3BR like. Expected px to move down swiftly, exited trade when that didn't happen, which end up to be a correct move.
Another reason for entering the trade was last higher low breaking the upward trendline. Looking back these trendline has varied results. Horizontal lines indicating support/resistance provide better view of the market.
V10000 chart gives a different picture, my entry was in the battle zone, it did break down but not significate, infact, it's low was a flip of 3:50 of earlier day. Px eventually rised to congestion area of previous trading day and turn there. These S/R lines are real good for target.

ES2008082501

One trade today, not really high probability. Took the lead from support line @ 1281.75. Set prudent target just below the pivot high, which was a right move, price moved just 1 tick above the target before retracing.

Position Sizing

See that this is the way to money management. There are so many success story out on EliteTrader Price Action Thread.
The trick is to enter a trade with 2 cars, take profit on first car with 5-6 ticks and move the stop of remaining car to Break Even. Phychologically easier to swallow as there is no downside once we move 2nd car to BE.
2nd car is the money spinner, let it ride as far as possible.

AHA moment

Beginning to have the "aha" feeling. Horizontal support and resistance line do play a very important part. Look for S&R flip. Price do bounce off S&R.

Price zone will lots of volume are important too, take the middle of these area. Price do bounce off these area too.

Do look at S&R as zone and not absolute value. Market is never absolute. Observe price movement, tell tale sign like slowing down indicate a possibility of turn.

On top of that, realised that S&R of daily picture (not daily bar) gives the best result, propably because most traders stay up for the whole session. Smaller oscillation has little effect for S&R.

All the TA that we learn such as Head and Shoulder, Double Top, Double Bottom works best with a correspondance S&R. Not just any H&S, DT, DB that comes along.

Trading / Investing based on Technical Analysis

Found this interesting writeup. The explaination of momentum is just what I'm looking for
http://www.marketskillbuilder.com/trading.htm

Momentum

Up and down-moves can be fast ("impulsive") or slow ("corrective" or "drifting") in nature (or in between). Note: The most important aspect of "Momentum" is not any absolute measurement of its value, but whether it is constant or changing. the key questions (to be answered from direct observation of the price-charts) are:

• Is the current price-move speeding up (in which case you want to stay with / get into it) or slowing down (in which case, consider taking a position against it)
• Is the current price-move faster or slower than the immediately preceding move in the opposite direction (expect the on-going trend to be in the direction of the faster of the two).

Support and Resistance Psychology

Repost from investopedia

Support and resistance levels exist only by virtue of traders' and investors' memories of their experience of trading a given security at certain levels in the past. Investors will be more inclined to lend their support at the same level at which a large crowd of investors once purchased the stock. Traders tend to have the expectation that a stock will rise again from the same level as it did in the past. Even if those traders did not hold the security in a previous session, they will still look to history to be their guide, examining prior examples of session bottoms and levels of support.
You should also note that particular zones of support or resistance are expected to shift to their opposite once their zones have been broached. For example, a strong zone of resistance, once broached, becomes a psychological victory for traders and quickly turns into a zone of support for the ensuing trend as traders continue to celebrate the victorious breakout. By contrast, once a zone of support is destroyed, the psychological deflation is all too real as the chart stubbornly refuses to touch this zone again in the near future.
The psychology of support and resistance corresponds to the vicious emotions of pain and regret. Traders holding losing positions feel pain and, looking for the first available opportunity to lessen their pain, abandon their positions. Traders who missed a good opportunity feel regret and look to trends from the past to find new opportunities to make up for missed chances in the past.
Even in a flat market these emotions can be prevalent. Traders may practice buying at the lower edge of a range and shorting at the upper edge. In uptrends, bears who engage in short selling will naturally feel pain, and bulls will experience regret that they did not buy more. Both will be eager to buy if and when the market gives them a second chance, which will create support during investors' reactions in an uptrend.
Resistance indicates bulls feeling pain, bears feeling regret, and both camps ready and waiting to sell. A downward breakout from a trading range will cause pain to bulls who bought and will make them eager to sell during the first market rally so that they can get out even. Bears will regret not shorting more and wait for that same rally to allow for a second chance to sell short. The pain of bulls and the regret of bears in a downtrend translates into what is referred to as resistance.

ES 20080731

Support and Resistance

What's the relationship between price and S/R? These are key areas to look for. On hindsite we can tell how price react to earlier S/R. Question is how to trade them in real time?
Another clue that Stealth Trader mentioned is momentum, that could help.

ES 20080730

Why price stall below the line?

4 types of ppl in the market.

1. Those that've shorted the break out weeks back : worry of turning a winner to looser, buy to BE.

2. Those holding long position @ this support level weeks back : buyers who purchase near a support level, only to see price fall, are likely to sell in order to recover their losses, when price rallies to near their break-even point.

3. Those holding long position @ lower level : seeing S turn R, will sell to take profit

4. Those not in trade : with the notion of Support becomes resistance, start to sell.

ES 20080729

ES 20080728

Droping all indicators, well, not all but most. :) Trying to follow only Price action with Support/Resistance, looking at how price behave when it reaches S/R.

Price Action Journal

Found a new Journal focusing on Price Action. Susan is from Anek camp. Will be nice following this, entry using 3BR. Price Action Journal

Magnitude of trade

Two charts here, the first is trading within a range of 50 ticks. Entries has target of 10 ticks and stops ~ 10 ticks.

2nd chart has a much bigger range. In fact the day range of YM. Trading this chart will have a stop of ~30 ticks and target of ~80 ticks.
Which is better???

Trading Plan

Follows jjrvat style of scalping with AHG tweek. Seeing beauty in both methods. Lets see hows this works out. Key points are
1. follows general direction (macro oscillation) of MA240.
2. trades only waves (minor oscillation) thats follows macro osc.
3. pay attention to Market Emotion. the 25% 50% 75% lines.
4. pay attention to 50% retracement of previous minor osc. (TRO_fib)
5. use AHG color bar as entry trigger.

Looking at the chart, it is very obvious that we're not capturing the correct move with V250 chart

It looks better with the V500 chart.

No time Trading

Didn't have time to monitor market during trading hour.
will post observation after event.
Hope this will be as good a learning experience.

AHG Reference

AHG Reference v1.0 - compilation of Anak's Holy Grill
Piscuy - scalping by Anak's tradign buddy

AHG NinjaTrader indicators

Collection of NinjaTrader Indicators related to AHG. 

Market Emotion Indicator - MarketEmotion.zip

Modified HA Bars - modha2_v1.zip

Three Bar Reversal Paintbar - threebarreversalpaintv3.zip

Didn't follow the game plan, hesitant in entry. Eventually enter out of "hope" that trend will continue. Which it didn't.
Note of the day : When px retrace more than the normal retracement, BE EXTRA CAREFUL

Non logical entry. Last down move was about 2 times the 2nd last down move. This changed the oscillation (bigger wave). The entry bar was not fully formed when I entered, sort of spike up when I quickly enter. Px swing down to 1/4 LOD before bouncing up, forming a valid entry bar. I should've keep stop below the 1/4 LOD. Stop taken out also by a spike!!! Bad luck? I see more of bad PLAN. Px eventually moved beyond my initial target, 6pts in total.

NOTE of the DAY : learn how px change its osc.

there is a comment by jjrvat that caught my attention.

"What is the average true range of the waves in a 500 VOL YM chart? What about in a “perfect setup” WAVE? In what % of these ranges are your targets? Stops?. What are the probabilities (in your experience) of having a good trade when you respect your PBP? And when you don’t? what about drawdowns?".

Price are dynamic... hence the shortfall of trading with Indicators using fixed value. Observing price, one can often see how price minic it's previous move. At times, it dance with small osc within the "normal" move. Need more observation.

TRADE 20080529

Rainbow wave up. NOTE: 1 tick break of DB may not mean much

TRADE 20080527

Mkt overall direction is down. Am looking for short as price retrace to trendline. Didn't happen. Looked for wrong direction of trade. Price subsequently made a double top. I'm enticipating a down wave for short after DT, which didn't happen.

Still picking top and bottom. not entering according to wave direction.
POINT TO NOTE : After breaking TL, do enticipate trend change.

Correct expectation, wrong timing. Should @ least wait for the DT before entry.

All wrong move. Didn't trade in accordance to plan, and Didn't trade in direction of wave!!!
MISTAKE : trying to catch top. most entry were at point where price retraced 50% from last low. I'm anticipating the turn, without confirmation. I may make more sense to enter after confirmation, or at least with multiple "confluence" as Anek see it.

TRADE20080522

Sideway market from Trading chart point of view. Shouldn't go Short when price break backup BTL

TRADE 20080521

Not AHG. still need sometime to warm up to his style. The entry was simply "hope", bad bad discipline.

My understanding of AHG

From what I've read, the key to success using AHG is the willingness to cut lost and let profit run.

Anek did that by scalling in and out of trade, typically starting with 2 cars, number of cars in trade will look something like 2-1-3-2-3-1-4-0, he let profit run. Starting with 2 cars gives the flexibility to bank in some profit, the remaining car will hence have "vurtually" very small stop.

From what I see, Anek trade from Pivot to Pivot, of the "Anchor" chart, typically 4X the trading chart. On trading chart, Anek will make several attempt to "guess" the turning point, he is quick in cutting lost, once he is right, he'll let profit run, which returns is more then enough to cover the lost. Aneks accuracy is less then 50%, many other trading his style has 30%. Mindset is key.

Anek has a few trick up his sleeve, he takes close below/above previous bar as a strong signal. He use also "Market Emotion" as guidance. See how price bounce off 25/50/75% of day high/low

What a Break

What a break, has been months away from the trading platform.
Couple of changes.. no longer using Ensign.. Signed up with Mirus, using NinjaTrader with Zen-Fire datafeed. Am still in simulation, so this is a good change and save lots of $$$$. NinjaTrader has its pros and cons, the platform is high customisible, allowing easy creation of indicators, definately a plus over Ensign way of creating customisation. Having said that, NinjaTrader is not that stable, crashes on me every other day.
A good start. Have a look at my desktop.

Did some reading and spoken to some trading friends lately too, conclusion is that every trader need to find his/her own style, no one trading method suite all people. And I'm glad to bump into a couple of good thread in EliteTrader, AHG - Profitable Strategy for Struggling Traders by Anekdoten and Day-Trading 2.0 for small traders by jjrvat. Will write down my understanding of their style in later post, Key is that they both pay little attention on indicators, they're both Price Action Traders.

PRICE is the perfect indicator. We need to realise this and all other indicator will work in certain time and fail in other. Look at price, and trade in the direction of TREND.

Computer Up

Finally, got my computer back. Not much data lost, but havn't been able to trade properly using my spare machine over the week.
The charts wasn't refreshed correctly. I keep trading in the wrong direction of market.
Will need to see what'll happen next week.

Broken Computer

What a day. Just when I was ready to do some real trade, the computer gave up on me. Will need to see if I could get it up an running again. On the bright side, the harddisk is still running fine. no data lost.

Trading Log

@10:05 Short 736.1 Stop 736.8 Target 732.7
@10:10 price moved sideway. nearly took out my stop
@10:13 decided to move stop to 738.8. lets see how market play out
@10:20 price hit 733.2. 7 more ticks to go. move stop to 735.4
recession coming. price should fall.
@10.25 move stop to 734.5
@10.26 hit target

Trading Log

@9:56 2 trade opportunities at the same time
Faster chart : Long 757.6 Stop 757.0 Target 759.5, RR 0.5/1.9, R3.09, WIN
Slower chart : Long 758.3 Stop 756.0 Target 765.3, RR 2.3/7, R3.02, LOST
There was this mysterious support/resistance @762.5 that has been in play for many days. This becomes high of the day eventually.
@10:35 Opportunity to Short 759.0 Stop 760.6 Target 753.9, RR 1.6/5.1. This eventually hit stop before moving down.
@11:00 price broke trendline, eventuall forming and opportunity for long @11:08 negating the earlier trade. This met target of 759.7